Indians have gone to the polls to elect a new parliament and the final phase will be over before this letter appears in print. For the first time Indian elections are getting noticed all over the world and the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is getting tested at the highest level. What are the chances of Modi getting a big win and forming the new government? What are the chances of the opposition Congress party making a comeback at the national level? Let us take an unbiased look based on only facts and events that have happened in recent weeks.
All the opposition parties did not want to form an alliance with Congress anywhere. Rahul Gandhi, who filed his nomination from Amethi, went all the way to the south in Kerala and filed papers there where minorities are almost 70 percent. His attacks on Modi calling him ‘chor’ and asking the crowds to say ‘Choukidar chor hai,’ and misquoting the court judgment, has hit him hard as a leader. He had to apologize and stop attacking Ambani, who threatened to sue him. Does this convey any message about the sinking ship called Congress?
Making Priyanka Vadra secretary and making her do campaigns to attack Modi when her own husband was seeking bail for corruption has exposed the family very badly. Looking at all these factors, it appears Congress may improve its last tally of 44 seats by another few seats and Rahul will lose Amethi as he never bothered to visit his constituency in five years, including the polling day.
Will the BJP do well? It looks like that. When press reporters were interacting with common people all over the country, only one name came as their first choice. We will vote for Modi. No name of the party, no name of the candidate, but all want the leader who they think has done a great job as a leader. Modi has been addressing massive crowds all over the country, including West Bengal. What could be the reason? Looks like the message of ‘Sab ka saath sab ka vikas’, ‘Beti bachavo’ and ‘beti padhavo’ has touched the people’s hearts. Giving electricity to 12 crore houses, giving toilets to 12 crore homes, supplying gas cylinders all over the country and assuring health care through ‘ayushman bharath’ has helped the BJP campaign in a big way. The NDA decision of giving ten percent reservation to the poorest families has made the Muslims and all other poor in the so-called upper castes has won the hearts of millions. The law against triple talaq and the Congress party’s opposition has brought minorities significantly to Modi’s side.
Considering all the factors and the strengths and weak nesses of parties, it appears the BJP will form the next government in Delhi and their alliance partners will also improve their tally. The opposition may get seats but they won’t be in a position to challenge the government. If NDA pursues the same economic policies and brings in investors to invest in India, and pursues its Make In India agenda, India will become a super economic power. Congress, which survived with absolute control by a dynasty, will deteriorate as they don’t have new dynamic leadership.
As the nation is seeing an increase in population of people between 25-40, new parties and new alliances will emerge and India will change phenomenally.
Los Angeles, Calif.